By JP Buellesfeld
The 2009 campaign has the makings of at least repeating Charlie Weis’ debut campaign in 2005, when the Irish finished in the top 10 for the first time in 12 years.
The offense was replete with veteran leadership and huge promise at quarterback (junior Brady Quinn), receivers (seniors Rhema McKnight, Maurice Stovall and Matt Shelton, plus junior Jeff Samardzija) and tight end (Anthony Fasano and John Carlson), had a quality running back in Darius Walker, and a senior/junior-laden line.
The
same will hold true in 2009 with Clausen, Tate, Floyd, Rudolph and Co.,
not to mention a solid stable in the backfield, a senior-dominated line
and the return of Mike Ragone.
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Unlike
in 2005, the defensive backfield will be a team strength, and the
linebacker corps will have a larger and deeper share of NFL prospects
than in 2005, with mainly Corey Mays. What will not be as strong on paper is the defensive line. Whereas the 2005 unit featured veterans Derek Landri, Victor Abiamiri and Trevor Laws, the 2009 crew will be in a construction phase.
The schedule was expected to be challenging in 2005, but ranked teams such as Pitt, Purdue and Tennessee
finished with 5-6 ledgers, while Michigan was 7-5. The 2009 slate will
be screaming for nine or 10 wins – or a back-to-BCS result.
Let’s
have a cursory look from what we see as the lightest to toughest foes,
keeping in mind that San Diego State and Syracuse were the two lightest
in 2008.
Must Wins
A
loss in any of these home games would likely end the Weis reign because
it would fall in the same categories as Syracuse in 2008, especially in
the fifth season.
12) Washington (0-12) –
First-year head coach Steve Sarkisian will need at least three years to
get this program back on track. The Huskies lost to Washington State,
for crying out loud, which brings us to…
11) Washington State (2-11) –
This off-site encounter in San Antonio will be against a team that
finished second-to-last (118th) in both scoring offense (12.69) and
scoring defense (43.85) – and dead last in turnover margin. Four teams
eclipsed 60 points against them (Cal, Oregon, Oregon State and USC),
and two others tallied 59 (Arizona) and 58 (Stanford).
Put it this way: Hawaii beat them, 24-10.
10) Navy (8-5) – The Mids are far from an automatic ‘W’ but they incur huge losses in the backfield, and without Paul Johnson it’s not going to be the same program.
9) Nevada (7-5) –
The Wolfpack own the No. 2 rushing offense in the country (291.42 yards
per game) and will return a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Vai Taua
(1,420 yards, 6.67 yards per carry) and QB Colin Kaepernick (1,115
yards and 7.34 ypc).
On the flip side, they are dead last in
pass defense, yielding 321.08 yards per game and are 84th in pass
efficiency defense. Clausen and Co. could pick up where they left off
on the Islands.
8) Connecticut (7-5) –
After starting 5-0 against a favorable slate, UConn stumbled in at 2-5
(although it did trounce Syracuse, 39-14). They return the nation’s
leading rusher, Donald Brown, whose 1,822 yards and 5.4 yards per
attempt will give the Irish defense cause for concern.
After this Nov. 21 clash, the Irish should be 6-0 in the musts – 5-0 at home and the other victory coming…
7) at Purdue (4-8) –
This has been a relatively fractured program the past several years,
but it’s going to be awfully difficult for the Boilermakers to find a
better head coach than Joe Tiller. Danny Hope was the coach-in-waiting who inherits a program that is lacking star power.
Still, a victory in Ross-Ade Stadium seldom comes easy for the Irish.
Streak Breakers
Notre
Dame ended the nine-game losing streak in bowls on Christmas Eve. Next
year, two other dubious streaks should end in Notre Dame Stadium: 1) a
school-record six consecutive losses at home to Michigan State dating
back to 1997 and 2) six defeats in a row to Boston College dating back
to 2001.
The main intangible ingredient is these games come
after what promise to be emotional encounters with Michigan on the road
and USC at home (see bottom of page for full schedule).
6) Michigan State (9-3) –
The Spartans lose all-everything back Javon Ringer (would you believe
no other MSU runner gained more than 97 yards this year?), and
quarterback Brian Hoyer, but do return nine starters on defense and a
quality receiving corps.
A seventh straight loss in Notre Dame Stadium to the Spartans? Unacceptable. It’s time, just as in the Hawaii Bowl.
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5) Boston College (9-4) –
The defense returns some quality talent, led by linebacker Mark
Herzlich, but the anchors of the nation’s No. 7 run defense – tackles
B.J. Raji and Ron Brace (you might remember them against the Irish) –
are gone. Eight starters return on offense.
A seventh consecutive loss to the Eagles…anywhere? Even more unacceptable. It’s time, just as in the Hawaii Bowl.
Bubbles
Notre
Dame is superior to all these teams, but it must demonstrate a veteran
maturity in 2009 of winning on the road, as the 2005 team did while
going 5-0 away from Notre Dame Stadium. The Irish cannot afford to be
worse than 3-1 here, and likely will be the favorite in all four.
4) at Stanford (5-7) – Beware the Cardinal! Jim Harbaugh
has been instilling a much more tough-minded approach into the program
while upgrading the recruiting. It’s only been a one-TD Irish victory
the past two years – and even the strong 2005 unit needed a last-minute
TD and two-point to clinch a spot in the BCS. Nine starters return on
offense, led by 1,136-yard runner Toby Gerhart, and seven on defense.
The
Irish should be no worse than 9-2 entering this contest, with a BCS bid
on the line just like in 2005. What does it say when Stanford, which
has not had a winning season since 2001, is one of the more dangerous
foes on the slate?
3) at Pitt (9-3) – Dave Wannstedt
has recruited well along both lines, and the payoff began to show this
year. Add in the dynamic running back LeSean McCoy and you have the
makings of a team that can compete with most anyone on a given Saturday.
Notre
Dame is 2-0 at Heinz Field, and will seek to avenge the four-overtime
loss this season in which it squandered a 17-3 halftime cushion.
2) at Michigan (3-9) –
What makes this game dangerous is we expect the Wolverines to be in the
same emotional frenzy as Notre Dame was for Michigan this year while
coming off its own 3-9 campaign. It’s an early-season “Credibility
Bowl” for Michigan.
Head coach Rich Rodriguez has a history of
turning around programs after his first season, and the Wolverines
still recruit well and have their share of strong individual parts such
as Brandon Graham (2nd in tackles for loss nationally with 20), or running back Brandon Minor and receivers Martavious Odoms and Greg Mathews.
This
program has undergone major overhauls, saw defensive coordinator Scott
Shafer recently resign, and there have been a large amount of transfers
(similar to Notre Dame in 2007). Expect this program to enter 2009 very
hungry. If it can find stability at quarterback, it will return to the
bowl scene.
Steal
1) USC (11-1) – This is the lone game on the 2009 slate one can point to and state, “Notre Dame is the clear underdog.”
The
Trojans return nine starters on offense, while most of its current
defense will be in the NFL next fall. Just like in 2005, Notre Dame
will have an extra week of preparation – and there is no reason why the
2009 game shouldn’t be at least as competitive as the epic 2005
showdown.
If 9-3 wasn’t good enough in 2005, as Weis noted at
the end of the season, it definitely shouldn’t be four years later.
It’s time.
2009 Schedule
Sept. 5 Nevada
Sept. 12 at Michigan
Sept. 19 Michigan State
Sept. 26 at Purdue
Oct. 3 Washington
Oct. 17 USC
Oct. 24 Boston College
Oct. 31 Washington State (San Antonio, TX)
Nov. 7 Navy
Nov. 14 at Pittsburgh
Nov. 21 Connecticut
Nov. 28 at Stanford